State of the Union Address

By: Neil | December 30th, 2008

The last three years Napoli has gone from 2nd in Serie B to 8th in Serie A, and are currently 5th with Genoa and Lazio not far behind. The goal for this year was to win an automatic place in the Europa league, which means finishing anywhere from 7th to 5th. Some early season success saw the club tied for first after Giornata 7, and since then there has been regular talk of Napoli sneaking into a Champions League spot. However, all this talk has been a little premature. First, there are a couple of areas – defensive depth and coaching – which need to be improved before Napoli can finish 4th or higher. Second, the factors that allowed the team to get off to a great start might not repeat themselves during the second half of the season. In the big picture, Napoli have a lot of work to do to improve on last year’s 8th place finish and hold onto a Europa League spot.

The biggest problem is the way our defence is structured. We simply have too many left footed defenders.

Right footed defenders: Gianluca Grava, Fabiano Santacroce

Left footed defenders: Salvatore Aronica, Paolo Cannavaro, Matteo Contini, Leandro Rinaudo.

Grava is a relic left over from the Serie C & B days, so basically we have one option for right defence: Santacroce. What happens if Santacroce is unavailable due to suspension or injury? This is where things get a little complicated. Rinaudo, a left footer, has seen a couple of games at right defence but he hasn’t looked great there. The best option seems to be moving Cannavaro, a left footer, over to the right. That’s fine, but now what do you do about centre defence? Rinaudo is Cannavaro’s back up right now but he’s struggled a bit there and I’d rather see Contini in the centre of defence, with someone else – either Rinaudo or Aronica – out on the left. But for whatever reason, the left footed Rinaudo never appears on the left and Contini doesn’t play in the centre. So if we’re missing Santacroce, it’s really like missing two starters: Santacroce on the right, and Cannavaro in the centre.

In my opinion this problem has been Marino’s only major screw up in assembling the team. I was shocked when Aronica came over earlier in the season, not because he’s short on quality but because he doesn’t offer cover on the right of defence where we really need it. In the 3-5-2 you need six good defenders – two for each position – and our depth players for whatever reason don’t offer proper cover on the right hand side. Part of the problem is that Rinaudo has disappointed, and doesn’t seem comfortable at any of the three positions. If we could use Santacroce-Cannavaro-Contini every single game I would be OK with that, but if this trio isn’t together then Napoli’s defence is too weak to qualify for the Champions League.

The second area that needs to be improved is the manager. When Reja can work with his starting eleven he is very good, but our bench players are only used when absolutely necessary. So when a starter is missing through injury or suspension, the player coming in is often rusty and nervous because he knows this could be his only chance to impress. This is not good for young players like Russotto and Navarro. Both of these players should be getting regular games in order to develop and learn how to work with the team. You can also add Denis in that category because he hasn’t been a regular starter. In fact, all of the bench players should be getting the occasional game to stay sharp and to make sure the team can work smoothly if starters are missing. Ranieri and Liverpool’s Rafa Benitez are experts at this: making minor adjustments here and there to make sure that starters get some rest and bench players fit into the system. Both of those teams are in the Champions League, while Napoli is not.

Reja’s other problems include Napoli’s consistently bad road form. Napoli has a road record of 2-2-5, which is considerably different from our home record of 7-1-0. Sure, most teams in pro sports play much better at home. But Napoli has the same problems on the road time and time again, and Reja either can’t diagnose the problems or can’t do anything to change them. In order to make the Champions League, we need a manager who’s going to make sure our road form isn’t too much worse than our home form. Our two away victories have been 1-0 victories over Bologna and Lazio, and the Bologna game needed a late goal to avoid a draw.

Then there’s the issue of the 3-5-2 formation and Reja’s inexplicable substitutions. Both of these have come under a lot of criticism from Napoli fans, but as long as Reja is manager the tactics will not change. Reja has experimented a bit this year, going to a 4-4-2 sometimes when leading and trying a 3-4-3 when the team needed a goal against Siena, but I don’t know if those experiments will continue. It’s funny how some Napoli fans hate Reja, but other professionals in the calcio world think he’s done a great job and give him the respect he’s due. Nobody other than Napoli fans have suggested that Napoli could be a Champions League team if Reja only changed tactics, and I’ll leave it at that.

So where is the team right now? Because of the above problems, we’re not that much better off than last year. Although we spent much of the first half of the season in a Champions League place, this can be explained by a number of reasons:

1) No major injuries. Certain key players picked up minor injuries – Lavezzi missed a couple of weeks in September and Hamsik missed a game and a half recently – but for the most part Reja has had everyone in the squad to choose from. Only Bogliacino had a long term injury, and he was easily replaced.

2) Fast start: Playing in the Intertoto Cup was great for Napoli’s first couple months of Serie A action. The team had already played a number of high pressure games before the Serie A season started, and we were in great shape while other teams were still finding their groove.

3) Other teams starting slow: Milan, Fiorentina, and especially Roma got off to bad starts by their own standards. Milan and Fior have caught up, while Roma is on its way. To qualify for the Champions League, Napoli needs two of those three teams, plus maybe even Genoa, to stumble in the second half.

Are those three factors going to repeat themselves in the second half? For the first one, there are no guarantees injury wise. Being in good physical shape is one way to reduce the risk of injuries, and Reja has put a lot of emphasis on fitness. But it’s bad planning to count on being injury free, and Napoli did have a bit of luck there in the first half. Napoli also lost the second advantage of a fast start. With our European adventure long gone, there’s nothing immediate that will give Napoli a psychological boost when play resumes in January. There may be some new signings, but internal competition doesn’t guarantee improved team play. Look at the Denis-Zalayeta situation: the starter’s job is there for the taking, but neither has really made a strong case for it, and Napoli is looking to sign another striker. With the third factor of other teams failing, well that’s an external factor which Napoli can’t count on.

If Napoli’s good fortune doesn’t repeat itself, the overall picture remains one of slow and steady growth. Even without making any moves in the January market, Napoli are well positioned to finish between 7th and 5th. And if the team somehow recaptures its early season form, there’s always the possibility of sneaking into the Champions League. And to top it all off, De La has shown no signs of slowing down his spending. In the next post I will speculate on possible January moves in the mercato – who might be leaving, and areas of the team the management is looking to improve.

Questions for discussion: What expectations did you have of Napoli this year? If the team hasn’t met those expectations, what is the problem?