Some Thoughts on the Champions League

By: Neil | February 26th, 2009

Although this is a Napoli blog, I would like to take a break from the ins and outs of Napoli and write about teams that are enjoying a little more success right now.

I have to start with the Man United – Inter clash. I don’t like the idea of seeding draws, but it’s a real shame that the best team in Italy and the best team in England were drawn in the round of 16. It reminded me of 1998 when Italy held eventual champions France to a 0-0 draw before being eliminated in a shootout in the quarter finals. Sometimes a champion meets its biggest obstacle long before the final. I’m not saying the winner will go on to win the whole thing but given the way the two sides are playing it’s a strong possibility.

I thought the contest at the San Siro was a hard fought and entertaining 0-0 draw. Both sides tried to get the decisive first goal, but because Man United’s goals were worth two Inter obviously had to worry about trying to keep a clean sheet. Knowing how Mourhinho manages I would say Inter has a slight advantage going into the second leg. Logic dictates that if Man United can get a draw away they should be favourites to win at home. But Mourinho can prepare his team just as well for away games as those at home. Inter should be worried that Man United were able to generate so many good scoring chances, but I think in the second leg Inter will push forward more and Man United will be spending more time defending because they absolutely cannot concede at home either. It could very well be another 0-0 draw and a shootout, but Mourinho has a great record managing against Sir Alex Ferguson, and I like Inter to find an all important away goal and move on.

Both Juve and Roma have to score at home to get back in their contests, but of the two Juve are in a slightly weaker position. First, their home ground, even when full, isn’t as intimidating as Roma’s. Second, Chelsea have a team that are great defensively and should be able to play for a 0-0 draw. If Juve is pushing forward too much Chelsea may even be able to sneak an away goal to kill the tie. Of course Juve can still advance, but they’ll need a moment of offensive magic, maybe a Del Piero free kick, to break Chelsea’s strong defence. Ranieri is a great manager and I have no doubt Juve will put in a good performance, but they might have already lost by falling behind in London. In the Champions League I think it’s an advantage to play at home first.

Roma is in a little better position because Arsenal are more likely to leak goals than Chelsea. And although Arsenal was clearly superior in the first leg they’ve historically struggled playing away from London in the Champions League (I realize that’s a huge generalization and there are definite exceptions). Roma is lucky the scoreline is only 1-0, but they can get a lot of confidence knowing that they’ve handled what is likely the best Arsenal can give them. Having said that the Gunners still have the slight advantage because the onus is on Roma to score. And the giallorossi will face the same trap as Juve – if they’re pushing forward too much, a single away goal from Arsenal can all but kill the tie. For me, this one is the most unpredictable of the three Anglo-Italian battles. Both teams can get involved in either high or low scoring battles, and although Wenger knows how to manage these kinds of contests his team has not been as consistent this year. Of course the same could be said of Roma too.

In the remaining ties I think both Liverpool and Barca won their contests by getting an away goal. Naturally either team could be upset at home, but both have to be considered strong favourites to advance. I was shocked by Sporting’s collapse at home to Bayern. Sporting are a much better team than that, and hopefully they can regain some pride with a professional performance in Munich. I’m not too familiar with either Villarreal or Panathanaikos, so I have no idea what to expect in their second leg. Pana got the all important away goal but Villarreal have played a lot in Europe the last few seasons and I wouldn’t count them out. In the final contest Porto are heavy favourites after outplaying Atletico in Madrid. Apparently the Spanish side was lucky to escape with a 2-2 draw, and with two away goals Porto should have no problems finishing off the tie at home. Atletico have had a fairly inconsistent year, and with a new manager recently put in place it seems like a big task to defeat the Portuguese league leaders in Porto.

I don’t like trying to predict specific details about games, but here are the teams I think will advance after the second legs:

Inter
Chelsea
Arsenal
Liverpool
Barcelona
Villarreal
Bayern
Porto

Regardless of what happens there should be lots of dramatic moments which is why the Champions League is such a great competition.