Looking Ahead

By: Neil | January 21st, 2012

This is supposed to be a preview of Siena, but we all know what will happen. Napoli will run themselves breathless and fight for every loose ball to maybe scrape a one goal victory against a 17th place team. Ironically, Siena is in between Bologna and Cesena in the standings, which happened to be the last couple of teams that Napoli really struggled against. And if the slimmest of victories doesn’t arrive, we know what Mazzarri will say. “We knew Siena would play the game of their lives, and we did well today but the ball wouldn’t go in. It’s a shame as we deserved more than we got, but even the best of teams can struggle to score at this stadium where Siena defend in numbers.” So you’ll understand why I’m not overly excited about Sunday, and I prefer to look towards the Champions League.

The thing that bothered me the most about the last two games isn’t that Napoli struggled to get any kind of result. It’s that Mazzarri’s tactics take all of the joy out of football. It seems like the players are programmed to do anything out there but think. The players run around on auto pilot, repeating the same attacking movements over and over again. Mazzarri claims the other teams sit back because they are scared of Napoli, but the more important truth is that other teams sit back because it’s the best way to get a result. Napoli simply cannot come up with an attacking system that breaks down teams that stick 10 men behind the ball, possibly including a backline of 5 players.

The only place where Napoli’s players have the space to be creative is the Champions League. And on that note I can’t wait for February 21 – exactly one month away – for Chelsea’s visit to the San Paolo. By that time a healthy Lavezzi should be back, and other key players like Inler and Cannavaro should be well rested.

And another reason I can’t wait for the Champions League is because Napoli might not be back next season. Others Serie A teams that got off to slow starts – Inter and Roma come to mind – have sorted out their problems and are climbing the table to join Juve and Milan at the top. It’s conceivable that Napoli might finish 5th or lower meaning that even if Italy had kept the 4th Champions League spot it would be Europa League for next season. And what about teams like Udinese and Lazio who will probably stay competitive until the end of the season. Can Napoli even catch them let alone the big teams? If you look at the table, there’s a good chance the top 7 teams will break away. The teams that finish 6th and 7th won’t even reach the Europa League.

Napoli almost has a better chance of reaching Europe through the Coppa Italia. If we can get by Inter in the quarter finals – and we lost to them in a shootout at the same stage last year – then it’s the winner of Siena vs. Chievo in the semi finals. The final (if Napoli doesn’t stumble against a smaller team) would be one of Juve, Roma, Lazio, and Milan. So if Napoli can just reach the final it will likely be against a team that will already qualify for Europe through the table. Two more Coppa Italia victories and Napoli is back in Europe.

All this is wishful thinking, of course, but when you look at Napoli’s Serie A form a little wishful thinking is very necessary. Because right now the only certainty is Chelsea visiting the San Paolo on Feb. 21, and a return match at Stamford Bridge on March 14. In light of Napoli’s domestic results those two matches are starting to define Napoli’s season, and not the week to week matches against Bologna and Siena.

Giornata 19

Siena vs. Napoli
Stadio Artemio Franchi, Siena
22 January, 15:00 CET, 14:00 UK/Ireland, 9:00 EST, 6:00 Pacific

Siena has conceded 19 goals this season, one fewer than Napoli’s 20. Look for a live blog tomorrow.