Napoli
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It’s well known that Napoli has two transfer campaigns: one if Cavani stays, and the other if Cavani goes. That’s simple enough. But what’s not so simple is Cavani’s future. He’s made it clear that he’s not a lifer at Napoli. There will come a point, he has said, when he wants to move on to a different challenge, namely one of the top European clubs who compete annually for domestic championships and the Champions League. Napoli may well be heading in that direction, but it will take another few years of success before the long term patterns are there. The problem for Napoli is this: Cavani’s value may never be higher than it is right now. If you knew Cavani was going to move after this season, would you not want to cash in while his value is sky high? There are more issues which we look at after the jump.
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Dave Taylor returns with some hefty praise for Napoli’s key players this season. Come to think of it, 2nd place deserves some high ratings, no? Look for plenty of change next season: some players will improve with Benitez’s system, others might slow down or look out of place.
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After 3.5 seasons, the Walter Mazzarri era is over. When Mazzarri took over, Napoli were a top 10 club who had an outside shot at sneaking into Europe, as they had done via the Intertoto Cup after an 8th place finish in 2007-08. With Mazzarri the club reached Europe every single season, the Europa League in seasons 1 and 3 and the Champions League in seasons 2 and 4. Napoli’s finishes of 6th, 3rd, 5th, and 2nd validated the slow but gradual growth that De Laurentiis had envisioned when the club was promoted back to Serie A. The club also won its 1st trophy since 1990 with a 2-0 Coppa Italia triumph over Juventus. So if you judge a manager by results, Mazzarri got results for Napoli, plain and simple. But by his own admission he rarely stays more than 3 years at a club, and a divorce was always in the cards whether sooner or later. So now what direction does Napoli go in? Can the new manager replicate the success Mazzarri had? Some speculation after the jump.
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After a one year absence Napoli has returned to the Champions League. It’s a much deserved return: the Partenopei have been the 2nd best team in Serie A, and need just one more win against Bologna, Siena, or Roma to guarantee a 2nd place finish. I am now officially pro Mazzarri, as the team is playing its best calcio at the end of the year which is what you need to compete for the very top places. Sure, the Europa League and Coppa Italia were sacrificed along the way, but it will be worth it next season when we see the team play against the best European clubs. This forum has been very critical of Mazzarri at times, and I’ve often been the one leading the way. But a 2nd place finish is the best this team can achieve right now, and it’s Mazzarri who has the ragazzi playing up to the the fullest potential.
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Roma’s win over Fiorentina gave Napoli’s Champions League hopes a big boost: the Viola can get a maximum of 9 points the rest of the way, which would give them 70 for the season. Napoli currently have 69 and a win over Inter would guarantee a top 3 finish. But there is still a big difference between 2nd and 3rd: the 3rd place team will have a qualifying round before they can enter the group stages of the Champions League. It doesn’t seem like a big deal, but Napoli’s record in two game aggregate contests in Europe the last three years has been 0-3 with losses to Villarreal, Chelsea, and Viktoria Plzen. Napoli does well in the group stages of each competition, but can’t get past the first hurdle after that.
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Pescara has fallen down to last place and while they’re not mathematically relegated yet, they are basically preparing for life in Serie B next season. The welcome Napoli with a depleted roster: Gaetano d’Agostino, Per Koldrup, Vladimir Weiss, and Juan Quintero are all missing. Those aren’t exactly household names in the soccer world but it represents some of Pescara’s best talent. In fact, Hamsik’s countryman Weiss is tied for the team lead in goals with…. 4? Unless I’ve done some bad research nobody on Pescara has scored more than 4 goals this season. The other 4 goal man on Pescara is the Swedish U-21 winger Mervan Celik. Even without the banned Cavani, Napoli are still fielding 5 players with 5 goals or more: Hamsik, Dzemaili, Inler, Pandev, and Insigne. On paper, this one is a bit of a mismatch.
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De Sanctis and Campagnaro out? Could be worse: Cagliari are missing Daniele Conti and Mauricio Pinilla. The Romanista Conti traditionally plays great games against Napoli, while the Chilean striker is one of Cagliari’s hottest players. No doubt Cagliari is one of the in-form teams in the league right now, but take out two of their starters and like most provincial clubs depth is not one of their strongest points. Still, Cagliari are unbeaten in 5 matches and have some impressive victories in that span: 3-1 over Samp, 2-1 over Fiorentina, and 2-0 over Inter. But all of those wins came at home, while their last road win was 2-0 over last placed Pescara back in February. Once again, everything is in place for a routine Napoli home win. But the Partenopei like to succeed the difficult way much of the time.
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It’s often said that Napoli fans expect too much of the team, but all I’m hoping for here is a draw that would keep the 4 point gap between 2nd and 3rd. Having said that, it can be dangerous to play for a draw. This one is an interesting tactical matchup – Milan play 4-3-3, a formation that has given Napoli lots of trouble in the past. The two wingers, which will probably be El Sharaawy and Niang, can stretch the outside defenders, in Napoli’s case Campagnaro and Britos. The other option is keeping the wingbacks deeper but then you’re basically playing a 5-3-2 which makes it difficult for Maggio and Zuniga to get involved in the offensive side of the game.
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It’s hard to believe it, but Genoa are in serious danger of going down. In fact, if not for Siena’s 6 point penalty the Grifone would be in the relegation zone and 5 points back of Siena. Instead, it’s the Tuscan side in the last relegation spot, but only 1 point behind Genoa. The numbers points to a routine Napoli win. Genoa have won only twice on the road this season, while Napoli have lost only once at home. Last season this fixture ended 6-1 for Napoli. And Napoli has no real injury problems, with Campagnaro and De Sanctis returning after picking up knocks on international duty. The only concern is Behrami who is a diffidato ahead of the showdown with AC Milan next week.
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De Sanctis – Campagnaro, Canna, Gamberini – Maggio, Inler, Behrami, Zuniga – Hamsik – Pandev, Cavani
We all remember the first meeting this season between the teams. Napoli was on course for a 1-0 win until Aronica, who had entered the game as a sub just minutes earlier, gave Torinto a breakaway with a blind pass back to De Sanctis. This time I would be happy as long as the game isn’t given away like that.
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